“We should be working harder to figure out how soon large-scale employment disruption will occur and exactly what income policies will be needed when the time comes.” — Elliott/Van Damme
Technological advances are going to change work skills in the future and leave certain kinds of workers unemployable. A new book, Computers and the Future of Skill Demand, uses a test based on the OECD’s Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) to compare computers with humans. The test assesses three skills that education systems like to focus on which are used in today’s workplace, namely literacy, numeracy and problem solving.
The Global Search for Education invited Stuart Elliott, the book’s author, and Dirk Van Damme, OECD’s Head of the Skills Beyond Schools Division, to discuss the study.
Stuart and Dirk: “According to Computers and the Future of Skill Demand, robots seem to be better at hard skills such as mathematics and computing, while humans are much better at soft skills, such as reasoning and writing. Should education systems in the future focus more on softer skills and give up teaching hard skills altogether, or is there some value in knowing skills that robots, at the moment, seem to be better at?”
For a skill like literacy, it’s still useful to learn to read at a simple level – similar to what computers can already do – as a way to develop reading skills that are beyond current computers. So one reason to learn something a computer can do is to develop a higher level of that skill.
Other skills are useful to learn to develop certain ways of thinking. Computers are far better at basic arithmetic and we now rarely solve complicated math problems by hand. But it’s helpful for everyone to learn basic arithmetic as part of learning to reason with numbers, even if we usually use calculators for most arithmetic problems.
“We’ll be surrounded by computers that provide information, direct our attention and suggest choices. The real competence needed by people will be the critical thinking and reasoning to put all the pieces together.” — Elliott/Van Damme
In your opinion, what are three key skills each child must possess in order to remain competent in an age of robotics?
The study looked at three skills that are generally believed to be important for everyone: literacy, numeracy and problem solving. That’s why we call them ‘foundation skills’. These will still be key skills over the next few decades. But the capabilities of computers suggest we’ll be using these skills in new ways, as we’re already seeing. We’ll be surrounded by computers that provide information, direct our attention and suggest choices. The real competence needed by people will be the critical thinking and reasoning to put all the pieces together.
What can parents, who have young children, do to prepare their kids for a robotic future we know so little about?
This question goes beyond the current study. However, it might be helpful for parents to focus on a set of more fundamental skills that have been important throughout human history: the skills of developing passionate interests, building strong individual relationships, and participating actively in groups. These skills will continue to be essential to creating a meaningful life, no matter what happens with robots and computers.
Do you foresee a future where governments and intergovernmental agencies mandate human-to-AI ratios in the workplace to avoid massive unemployment, especially in the transitioning phases between human and robotic workers?
Such a mandate seems completely unworkable and would simply encourage companies to find ways to work around the requirement. For one thing, it would be impossible to count robotic workers because most automation will be virtual and invisibly distributed across many computers. This is the case for the skills analysed in the current study. Instead of trying to limit robots and computers, effective policy responses to job loss will need to start first with education and then move to income redistribution as automation becomes more advanced.
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